La presidencia en EUA saliente de George W. Bush ha tocado fondo, y como prueba está lo acontecido el día de hoy en que un enfurecido periodista iraquí le ha llamado perro y aventado los zapatos, el mayor insulto en el mundo islámco.
A casi un mes de dejar la oficina oval ha dejado al orden internacional deshecho y herido de muerte, y sin perspectivas claras de recomposición pronta, no mientras haya gente empecinada en mantener a un EUA como primer potencia mundial única y hegemónica, lo cual además, mantendrá a la economía norteamericana y mundial en vilo. No habrá recuperación ni salida de la crisis mientras se mantengan vivos los conflictos en Irak y Afganistán.
Desgraciadamente las perspectivas no son halagüeñas: la llegada de Obama a la presidencia de la República norteamericana no garantizará por sí misma el cambio hacia una posición pacífica y conciliadora: la fecha establecida para el retiro de las tropas norteamericanas en Irak hasta el 2011 implica, prácticamente que habrá una continuidad del estado actual de las cosas en los próximos 3 o 4 años, incluso con un EUA que luchará solo, ante la salida de las tropas japonesas y británicas planteadas para el próximo año.
La resaca de los terribles ataques a puntos turísticos en Bombay ha propiciado que los dedos acusadores hindúes señalen al tradicional enemigo: Pakistán, y Obama ya desde los debates presidenciales acusaba al país islámico de no hacer lo suficiente contra el terrorismo, además de mostrarse partidario de incrementar la presencia militar en Afganistán de 35,000 a 60,000 efectivos... los rusos, hace 20 años llegaron a tener a más de 80,000 soldados en dicho país y ni con todo el apoyo de migs y sukhoys pudieron evitar recibir la paliza más grande de su Historia desde la invasión mongola en el siglo XIII.
El reciente anuncio de la Reserva Federal de bajar las tasas de interés interbancarias de referencia a entre 0 y 0.25% a fin de evitar por enésima vez que los bancos y grandes empresas se declaren en quiebra, lo que será contraproducente: van a provocar una gran inflación al inundar la economía con más y más dinero sin respaldo, tratando de provocar una deflación que lleve a la baja de precios y al estímulo del consumo. Para entender bien esto, que no es la primera vez que pasa en la Historia, pues ocurrió en la Francia Revolucionaria en 1796 y en la Alemania de la República de Weimar de los años 30, tenemos el siguiente artículo de "Libertad Digital": http://www.libertaddigital.com/opinion/manuel-llamas/hacia-la-hiperinflacion-46908/
En cuanto a nuestro pobre y atribulado México, las perspectivas son tristes: 2009 será año electoral, año en que todo mundo pierde menos los políticos y sus partidos que se han asegurado repartirse el erario con singular alegría, añádase a esto la incertidumbre que generan todos los comicios acerca de las expectativas de sus resultados, y se tiene garantizado un año malo para la actividad económica de los que andamos a pie, además, el clima de violencia e inseguridad desalentará la inversión y el turismo, que de por sí disminuyen ante la falta de capitales en el exterior, así como las remesas disminuirán al perder muchos "paisanos" su empleo o ver incrementados sus gastos.
Sobre las negras perspectivas, sobre todo las generadas por la delincuencia, aquí les copio un artículo de Stratfor que me llegó:
Deteriorating Security
One apparent paradox for the Calderon administration has been that, even while the government has clearly succeeded in damaging the cartels, the country’s security situation has continued to deteriorate at what appears to be an unstoppable rate. Just last week, the total number of drug-related homicides in Mexico in 2008 surged past 5,000. This puts Mexico on track to more than double the previous annual record of 2,700 killings, set in 2007.
In addition to the drastic rise in the number of killings, the violence has escalated in other important ways that are more difficult to quantify. For one, Mexican cartel violence has remained a brutal enterprise, with this past year registering perhaps the most significant beheading incident. Second, attacks on security forces have increased. Law enforcement and military personnel have represented some 10 percent of cartel casualties, compared to approximately 7 percent during 2007.
In addition, a series of assassinations of high-ranking government officials in Mexico City made it clear that almost anyone can be considered a cartel target. An expansion of the cartels’ arsenals also contributed to the escalation in violence, including the July discovery of explosive-actuated improvised incendiary devices in vehicles near a cartel safe house, and the February failed assassination attempt with an improvised explosive device (IED) in Mexico City.
Finally, 2008 witnessed the first clear case of the indiscriminate killing of civilians, when alleged members of the La Familia crime organization threw two fragmentation grenades into a crowd during Mexico’s Independence Day celebration in Morelia, Michoacan state.
Of particular concern to the United States is how this rampant violence continues to cross the border. No single incident better demonstrates this than the Phoenix home invasion in June. In that incident, cartel hit men armed with assault rifles and wearing Phoenix Police Department raid shirts killed a drug dealer. The assault had all the makings of a Mexican cartel hit, especially in the attackers’ willingness to engage police officers if necessary.
Looking Ahead
The deteriorating security situation certainly has become the top priority for the Calderon administration, with Mexico’s crime problem now officially considered a matter of national security. The government is considering the implications of increasing casualties, not only among security forces but also among civilians.
Moreover, the initial strategy of relying on the military only over the short term appears increasingly unfeasible, as police reforms have proven far more difficult to achieve than the administration anticipated. Despite the costs, Calderon has shown no signs of letting up. Assistance from the United States will begin expanding under the Merida Initiative, but foreign assistance is only one part of the solution. Perhaps recognizing that at present it is the cartels — not the government — that ultimately control the level of violence in the country, the Calderon administration is exploring plans to escalate the military’s commitment to the fight.
Of course, a sudden drop in violence could make such an escalation unnecessary. There is currently no indication that the violence will soon taper off, but it might also be premature to assume that the violence will continue to escalate in the way it has so far. Attacks involving IEDs or the indiscriminate killing of civilians, for example, have yet to be repeated.
Despite this caveat, the obvious danger is that the cartels have shown themselves to be remarkably innovative, vicious and resilient when backed into a corner. Given their powerful arsenals and deep penetration of the country’s institutions, a further increase in attacks against security forces and government officials seems all but inevitable.
One apparent paradox for the Calderon administration has been that, even while the government has clearly succeeded in damaging the cartels, the country’s security situation has continued to deteriorate at what appears to be an unstoppable rate. Just last week, the total number of drug-related homicides in Mexico in 2008 surged past 5,000. This puts Mexico on track to more than double the previous annual record of 2,700 killings, set in 2007.
In addition to the drastic rise in the number of killings, the violence has escalated in other important ways that are more difficult to quantify. For one, Mexican cartel violence has remained a brutal enterprise, with this past year registering perhaps the most significant beheading incident. Second, attacks on security forces have increased. Law enforcement and military personnel have represented some 10 percent of cartel casualties, compared to approximately 7 percent during 2007.
In addition, a series of assassinations of high-ranking government officials in Mexico City made it clear that almost anyone can be considered a cartel target. An expansion of the cartels’ arsenals also contributed to the escalation in violence, including the July discovery of explosive-actuated improvised incendiary devices in vehicles near a cartel safe house, and the February failed assassination attempt with an improvised explosive device (IED) in Mexico City.
Finally, 2008 witnessed the first clear case of the indiscriminate killing of civilians, when alleged members of the La Familia crime organization threw two fragmentation grenades into a crowd during Mexico’s Independence Day celebration in Morelia, Michoacan state.
Of particular concern to the United States is how this rampant violence continues to cross the border. No single incident better demonstrates this than the Phoenix home invasion in June. In that incident, cartel hit men armed with assault rifles and wearing Phoenix Police Department raid shirts killed a drug dealer. The assault had all the makings of a Mexican cartel hit, especially in the attackers’ willingness to engage police officers if necessary.
Looking Ahead
The deteriorating security situation certainly has become the top priority for the Calderon administration, with Mexico’s crime problem now officially considered a matter of national security. The government is considering the implications of increasing casualties, not only among security forces but also among civilians.
Moreover, the initial strategy of relying on the military only over the short term appears increasingly unfeasible, as police reforms have proven far more difficult to achieve than the administration anticipated. Despite the costs, Calderon has shown no signs of letting up. Assistance from the United States will begin expanding under the Merida Initiative, but foreign assistance is only one part of the solution. Perhaps recognizing that at present it is the cartels — not the government — that ultimately control the level of violence in the country, the Calderon administration is exploring plans to escalate the military’s commitment to the fight.
Of course, a sudden drop in violence could make such an escalation unnecessary. There is currently no indication that the violence will soon taper off, but it might also be premature to assume that the violence will continue to escalate in the way it has so far. Attacks involving IEDs or the indiscriminate killing of civilians, for example, have yet to be repeated.
Despite this caveat, the obvious danger is that the cartels have shown themselves to be remarkably innovative, vicious and resilient when backed into a corner. Given their powerful arsenals and deep penetration of the country’s institutions, a further increase in attacks against security forces and government officials seems all but inevitable.
En fin... esperemos que fallen los pronósticos, quién sabe cuánto más aguantemos.
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Me voy los próximos 4 días de vacaciones a San Luis Potosí, voy a ver vestigios de la época colonial, tiempos mejores para la entonces Nueva España en que el Barroco y la cultura triunfaron. Regreso el domingo a escribir más posts, creo que sería bueno dar seguimiento a lo que está haciendo Rusia paseando a sus barcos por todo el mundo, entre otras cosas que parecen indicar que se acaba la era de las democracias y vendrá la primavera del autoritarismo... ahí nos leemos.
